·Talbott RD 2/3 (+400/+700)
Talbot is an extremely patient and talented striker with 5/6 pro wins by KO. Going back to his amateur record he has only let 1 fight (Reyes Cortez) go the distance. Not a single one of his finishes has been in the 1st round meaning 10/11 of his wins have come by finish in RD 2 or 3. Expect a late finish.
·Tom Aspinall ML (-115)
He is faster, more well-rounded, and a better wrestler. Almost all of Pavlovich's wins are by first round KO and I don't see that happening with Aspinall. He could KO/Sub him early or potentially grind him out, but I definitely see Aspinall winning this fight.
·Chimaev dec (+290)
Usman showed his last fight that his bad knees and age are starting to catch up to him. I think he's taking this fight as a last-ditch attempt to keep attention on his career and once he is locked in with Chimaev, he will be more focused on surviving than winning. If Gilbert Burns can make it 3 rounds with him, I think so can Usman. Chimaev wins (30-27)
·Malkoun RD 2,3 (+500,1000)
Brundage is taking this fight on short notice. Malkoun is a pressure fighter who can break people and Brundage has been known to hit the "quit button". As soon Brundage realizes he's not going to be the hammer in this fight he should turtle up against the fence, most likely in the 2nd or early 3rd.
·Holland ML (+120)
JDM is good, but he's facing another good striker with an 8" reach advantage in a large cage that will favor movement. Unless JDM is able to cut off the cage and land a fight ending shot early, I think Holland picks him apart and wins by dec or finds a KO late.
·Gane ML (-170)
Gane looked horrible VS Jones but he is still a top 5 heavyweight. This fight is in a big cage which will favor Gane's footwork, and I expect him to catch Spivac rushing in trying to close the distance. Most likely an early finish so RDs 1-3 (+350,+600, +950) are all very live.
·Garry TKO/SUB (-140)
Garry has 8/12 wins by TKO/Sub. Magny has been finished 8/10 of his losses and is taking this fight on short notice. He seemed fired up at the press conference, I think Garry will go for a finish.
·Blackshear SUB (+195)
Blackshear is a blackbelt who showed dominant wrestling as an underdog vs Lacerda. Johnson has been subbed 3/7 of his losses and is taking this fight as a UFC debut on short notice. I expect the small cage to initiate a lot of grappling exchanges and for Blackshear to get the sub.
·Aspinall RD 1 (+100)
Assuming his knee holds up, this should be a "welcome back" showcase fight for Aspinall. He's younger, bigger, stronger, and has finished 11/12 of his wins in the first round. Tybura was KO'd by Augusto Sakai in RD 1 who is trash. As soon as Aspinall starts to open up or decides to put Tybura on his back this fight should be close to over.
· Volkanovski (ML -375)
· Petrino (ML -225)
· Moreno-Pantoja (To go the distance YES -115)
· Nickal TKO/KO +280 – His current numbers say submission 75% ko 25%. That being said- I have a feeling with Woodward being a short stalky opponent, Bo may be hungry for a highlight ko. He has shown flashes on the feet and will have a huge reach advantage. Even when he grapples, I see a path to victory where he uses wrist control to TKO him up against the cage or ends in in full mount with a ground and pound victory. Beware of the sub but I love the +280 TKO play.
· Petrino TKO/KO -130- Petrino was super impressive in his last fight and although it went to decision, he carried his cardio/power through all 3 rounds well getting 7 takedowns. Prachnio is 34, a lower-level UFC fighter, and has been KO’d 4 of his 6 losses. I don’t expect him to last 15 minutes.
· Volkonovski (Rd 3 +1100, Rd4 +1600, Rd 5 +2000) - MMA math doesn’t always work, but Rodriguez took a ton of Damage vs Holloway whereas Volkonovski basically outclassed Holloway. With Rodriguez’s last 2 fights being an Ortega injury and a matchup with the 38-year-old Emmet, he was kind of fortunate to get this title shot VS the arguably P4P #1 fighter right now. He’s a great fighter and I expect him to make it competitive at the start, but Volks power will take over and he will likely get a finish between RDS 3-5.
Austen Lane ML (+155)
In the end of the day, I decided getting 1 punch KO'd by Greg Hardy isn't as bad as losing a decision to Jared Vanderaa. Like his brother: Tafa is a 1 trick pony relying on a KO and I think Lane has far more avenues to win. I also think if he gets this fight to the ground, Tafa's gas tank will be gone within a round and that 1 punch KO becomes even more unlikely. He may get KO'd so I wouldn't bet my house on it, but if he doesn't, he is the bigger man (6'6 vs 6') fighting in his own backyard and this is his fight to win.
Marc-Andre Barriault ML (-135)
Anders is 36 years old and has looked all of that in his last few fights. Yes, he carries power and could get the KO rd 1, but I think it is far more likely MAB survives the early onslaught, and wears him down like we have seen him do before. After a dangerous first round, I expect MAB to wear on Anders and likely get a finish in rounds 2-3 or win a dominant dec. (+1000,+1500).
Albazi ML (-110)
In a match between two of the top flyweights, I see the biggest edge of the fight going to Albazi in the grappling department. They are fighting in the Apex (small cage) so footwork and distance management will be tough and whoever is stronger in the grappling exchanges will be a huge factor. If Albazi gets him down and continues to wear on him, I expect him to get a finish in rounds 3-5 or win a dominant decision.
Urbina ML (-105)
Urbina looked good when stepped in late to fight Bryan Battle on the Ultimate fighter Finale, he just faded. With a full camp, he looks in great shape and incredibly motivated. On the other side Cosce looks like he had a miserable weight cut and still missed weight by 1.5. I expect Urbina's pressure to be the difference and as long as he isn't caught in the 1st, wear down Cosce and potentially get a second or 3rd round finish. (+700,+1400)
-Almeida SUB (-105)
Im going to keep this short. Rozenstruik is a great 35-year-old kickboxer but still a 35-year-old kickboxer. Almeida is levels above most heavyweights on the ground. I expect him to get him down in the 1st and either Arm Triangle him or end up on his back and get a RNC. Almeida by sub (-105), first round sub (+220) is also very live.
-Ribiero ML (-170)
Late money has come in on Holmes making this a great value play. Holmes is only in the UFC because James Krause begged Dana White to sign him. His standup looks clunky and to me doesn't seem like a UFC caliber fighter. Ribiero has 10 KO's in 10 wins and is looking for his first UFC win after loosing to Al hassan. Holmes also missed weight by 4 pounds so unless he is trying to come in heavy to wrestle I wouldnt be shocked if he's coming in compromised. Most likely Ribiero RD 1 KO, but I'm taking the ML since Holmes has never been KO'd.
-Caio Borralho SUB (+145)
Caio Borralho is one of the most promising up and coming middle-weight prospects. Vegas knows that so he is coming in as a (-300) favorite. He's fighting a dangerous striker in Michal Oleksiejczuk, so I don't see him wanting to keep it on the feet long. Although Michal is dangerous, he throws a bit recklessly leaving himself open for takedowns and has been submitted 3 times. Once it hits the matt, Borralho will be levels ahead and most likely sub him rather quickly.
Caution: it's a heavy weight fight and it can end in 1 punch. However.. Blaydes relies on wrestling which will be hard in the small cage. He also seems to choke in big fights against power punchers. With a 4" reach advantage were taking Pavlovich.
-Pyfer KO (+110)
Meershaerts only chance to win is to catch him in a sub like a lot of his victories but Joe Pyfer is coming off an incredibly dominant grappling competition victory vs Eric Anders who is a beast. I don't think he will get this fight to the ground but if he does I wouldn't be shocked to see Pyfer the one on top landing heavy ground and pound. I think most of this fight will end up taking place on the feet and the hungry 25-year-old will use his speed and power advantage and find the KO.